©2024 – Seeq Corporation | 1©2024 – Seeq Corporation | 1

Natchanon Naruesatyan / Pattama Poorahong Focused Improvement Engineer

Real-Time Predictive Models

for Cracker Run Length

Thai Plastic and Chemicals Public Company Limited (TPC)

TPC Group’s Company Profile

VIETNAM

PVC Resin PVC compoundTHAILAND

PVC resin & VCM Research center

INDONESIA PVC Resin

Pipes & Fittings

4

PVC Resin

VCM

Manufacturing Sites:

PVC Compound Established: since 1966

TPC Supply Chain Diagram

Olefin Plant

Ethylene

EDC

PVC Plant

Marine

Packaging type

Tank car Flexible Bag

PVCVCM

VCM Plant (Vinyl Chloride Monomer) (Poly Vinyl Chloride)

Sea Bulk

Customers

PP Woven Bag

PVC Finish Goods VCM = Vinyl Chloride Monomer

EDC = Ethylene Di-Chloride HCl = Hydrogen Chloride PVC = Poly Vinyl Chloride

VCM Process Flow Diagram

VCM = Vinyl Chloride Monomer

EDC = Ethylene Di-Chloride HCl = Hydrogen Chloride PVC = Poly Vinyl Chloride

EDC Cracking

EDC

HCI

VCM

Fuel Gas

Temperature

Productivity

Coke Formation

Run length

Cracking Operating Trade-offs:

IMPORTED EDC

Challenge

Cracker run length dictates our shutdown schedule

The challenge is moving from guesswork to precision

The ability to predict the exact shutdown date is crucial. It allows us to:

• Enable effective maintenance planning • Maximize productivity and eliminate profit loss from early shutdowns

Without real-time data, we are trapped:

• By Ineffective SD Planning:

• By a High-Stakes Trade-Off:

Previous Attempts

●Manual Process: Run length projections are manually calculated by

engineers using PI data exported to Excel

● Labor-Intensive: The process is time-consuming and requires

significant manual intervention for each update

● High Volatility: Forecasts fluctuate frequently with operational

changes, requiring constant recalculations to remain

accurate and reliable

Export PI

data to

Excel

Cleansing

data Regression Forecast Report

Seeq Solution

Export PI

data to

Excel

Cleansing

data Regression Forecast Report

Real-time auto update / Online Visual / Notification

Results

Automated,

Real-Time Forecasting

Replaces slow, manual Excel calculations with

a dynamic forecast that updates every 1

hour while achieving a predictive accuracy of over 80%

Enhanced Online Visibility

& Collaboration

Provides a shared, interactive dashboard

for all teams (Operations, Maintenance) to align on one consistent forecast for faster

decision-making.

Proactive Notification

& Alerting System

Automatically notifies teams before a

shutdown is required, shifting maintenance

from a reactive emergency to a planned,

proactive event

Next Challenge

This success led us to ask a next bigger question:

“What if we could do more than just Predict the shutdown?

and What if we could actually Control it?”

Perform correlation analysis

Modeling & Forecasting

Create A Prescriptive Model

Y= f(X1,X2,X3,…,Xn)

Prediction Prescription

Two fundamental questions:

1. What are the Key operational factors that directly accelerate the need for a shutdown?

2. How can we adjust these factors in real-time to Safely extend our run length?

TPC Slide 1 Slide 2 Slide 3 Slide 4 Slide 5: TPC Supply Chain Diagram Slide 6 Slide 7 Slide 8 Slide 9 Slide 10 Slide 11